Thirty percent. That is the federal credit a twenty twenty-six solar purchase no longer gets, and a quote still promising it is the first red flag. Here is what a real quote shows.
Correction (October 17, 2026): the median payback, the state medians and the price per watt spoken in this video were our own model assumptions and were withdrawn on October 17, 2026: no primary source publishes an installed price per watt. The expired-credit red flag and the quote checks stand. The narration uses the earlier figures.
General information, not professional financial, tax, legal, or insurance advice. The Dreamy Leads Research is an editorial and data team, not a licensed advisor.
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Chapters
- 0:00 No 30% credit on a 2026 purchase. Here is what a real quote shows.
- 0:14 I. The first red flag
- 0:39 II. Payback by state
- 1:17 III. Price per watt
- 1:44 IV. What every bid needs
- 2:01 V. Buy or lease
See your 2026 numbers
Our live dataset holds the current figures. Explore them for your own state or metro:
Full transcript
I. The first red flag
Section twenty-five D, the thirty percent residential credit, expired for homeowner-purchased systems installed after December thirty-first, twenty twenty-five. Leases and power purchase agreements are different: the system owner may still claim the thirty percent Section forty-eight E commercial credit, and may pass some of it through in the rate.
II. Payback by state
Here is what that does to payback. Our payback calculator models thirty-two metros in five Southern states. By state, a twenty twenty-six cash purchase pays back in a median eleven point eight years in Florida, twelve point one in Arizona, twelve and a half in Georgia and North Carolina, and thirteen point three in Texas. Across all thirty-two metros the median is twelve point two years. California's payback is withdrawn under net metering three point oh. Five states are in the free study.
III. Price per watt
Every bid should break out the price per watt. The study's calculator prices every modelled metro at two dollars ninety a watt installed, cash, before incentives, and real quotes vary around that by installer and equipment. Across the thirty-two metros, that puts typical systems at twenty-three thousand seven hundred eighty to thirty thousand one hundred sixty dollars.
IV. What every bid needs
The vetting starts on paper: at least three itemized bids for the same system size and equipment class, and seven checks each bid should clear, from warranty terms in writing to a production model with a shading analysis.
V. Buy or lease
And the ownership math moved. Take thirty percent off the same systems and the median payback drops to eight and a half years, which the study says is roughly where a lease or PPA that captures the commercial Section forty-eight E credit lands, if the system qualifies. The full study is free at Dreamy Leads Research. What state are you in, and what price per watt were you quoted for solar? Tell us in the comments.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there still a solar tax credit in 2026?
Not for homeowner purchases — Section 25D expired for systems installed after December 31, 2025. Lease/PPA third-party owners may still claim the 30 percent Section 48E commercial credit.
What is NABCEP certification?
The industry-standard solar professional certification per the Department of Energy — ask whether the person designing your specific system holds it.
Sources
- Dreamy Leads Research Financial Data Explorer
- U.S. Department of Energy
- NREL
- DSIRE
