Twelve point two years. That is the median payback on a solar cash purchase across thirty-two metros now that the homeowner tax credit is gone, and it changes how solar companies compare.
General information, not professional financial, tax, legal, or insurance advice. The Dreamy Leads Research is an editorial and data team, not a licensed advisor.
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Chapters
- 0:00 With the credit gone, payback runs a median 12.2 years. Six companies, six lanes.
- 0:14 I. The credit that ended
- 0:53 II. Six companies, six lanes
- 1:18 III. The production promise
- 1:34 IV. The equipment specs
- 1:54 V. Structure and scale
- 2:11 VI. How the lanes were set
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The figures in this explainer come from our live dataset. Explore them for your own state or metro:
Full transcript
I. The credit that ended
The federal residential credit, section twenty-five D, expired for homeowner-purchased systems installed after December thirty-first, twenty twenty-five. The site's payback study puts the median at twelve point two years across five states, from ten point seven in Miami to thirteen point nine in Tallahassee. By state, Florida is fastest at eleven point eight years and Texas slowest at thirteen point three. California is left out; the study reports its cost only. A lease or PPA can still capture a thirty percent commercial credit.
II. Six companies, six lanes
Against that backdrop, the overview sorts six companies into lanes. Palmetto is the buying lane, on marketplace pricing. Sunrun is the lease and PPA operator. Freedom Forever is the production guarantee lane, Trinity Solar the Northeast regional, the Tesla Powerwall three the battery, and Qcells the U.S.-made panel.
III. The production promise
Freedom Forever's guarantee runs twenty-five years and pays for production shortfalls. The overview notes that a local dealer executes the installation, so the guarantee and the crew come from different places.
IV. The equipment specs
On equipment, the page reports the Powerwall three at thirteen point five kilowatt-hours with an eleven point five kilowatt integrated hybrid inverter, and Qcells panels at about twenty-two percent efficiency class, using n-type cells from the largest U.S. factory footprint.
V. Structure and scale
Scale differs sharply. Sunrun runs the largest residential fleet, and its lease pricing draws on commercial credits homeowners lost in twenty twenty-six. Trinity Solar brings thirty years in business and in-house crews.
VI. How the lanes were set
The overview says the lanes come from ten solar head-to-head comparisons plus the six-state payback study, using primary sources such as the Department of Energy and spec sheets. The full overview is free at Dreamy Leads Research. What state are you in, and what price per watt were you quoted for a solar system this year? Tell us in the comments.
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