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Executive Summary

Polk County, Florida — coterminous with the Lakeland–Winter Haven metropolitan statistical area (CBSA 29460) — looks like an affordable housing market and is not one. The county's median home value is $66,200 below the national median, and its price-to-income ratio (4.04x) is marginally better than the national 4.12x. Yet 34.3% of Polk homeowners with a mortgage spend 30% or more of household income on housing, against 28.0% nationally — a gap of 6.3 percentage points.

The explanation is on the income side, not the price side. Polk's median household income is 18.3% below the national median. Cheaper houses bought on materially lower incomes produce more strain, not less.

Key Findings

  • 39,057 of 113,908 Polk households with a mortgage are cost-burdened — 34.3%, against 28.0% nationally.
  • Polk's median home value is $266,500, $66,200 under the U.S. median and $92,500 under Florida's.
  • Median household income is $65,978 — 18.3% below the national $80,734.
  • Renter cost burden is 49.8% (42,611 of 85,480 households). That is high — but only 2.2pp above the national rate, so it is not what makes Polk unusual.
  • Homeownership is 70.5%, above both the state and national rates — more of Polk's housing stress sits with owners than the national pattern would predict.

The headline: cheaper homes, more strain

Polk homeowners are cost-burdened well above the national rateShare of owner-occupied homes WITH a mortgage where housing costs are 30% or more of household income — the standard HUD cost-burden threshold. Florida as a whole is higher still, but Florida's median home value is $92,500 above Polk's: Polk reaches a near-statewide burden rate on far cheaper housing, which is the point.Polk homeowners are cost-burdened well above the national ratePolk CountyPolk County: 34.3%34.3%FloridaFlorida: 35.0%35.0%United StatesUnited States: 28.0%28.0%Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 5-year estimates (api.census.gov)
Share of owner-occupied homes WITH a mortgage where housing costs are 30% or more of household income — the standard HUD cost-burden threshold. Florida as a whole is higher still, but Florida's median home value is $92,500 above Polk's: Polk reaches a near-statewide burden rate on far cheaper housing, which is the point.
…even though Polk homes cost less than the national medianCensus median home value (B25077). This is a survey estimate of what owners report their homes are worth — it is not a sale-price series.…even though Polk homes cost less than the national medianPolk CountyPolk County: $266,500$266,500FloridaFlorida: $359,000$359,000United StatesUnited States: $332,700$332,700Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 5-year estimates (api.census.gov)
Census median home value (B25077). This is a survey estimate of what owners report their homes are worth — it is not a sale-price series.

These two charts are the finding. Polk buys in below the national median on price and still carries a materially higher share of cost-burdened owners. Any story that treats a low median home value as evidence of affordability will get Polk wrong.

Why: the income line

The gap is in the income lineMedian household income (B19013). Polk's median household earns less than the national median, which is what turns a cheaper housing market into a more strained one.The gap is in the income linePolk CountyPolk County: $65,978$65,978FloridaFlorida: $74,568$74,568United StatesUnited States: $80,734$80,734Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 5-year estimates (api.census.gov)
Median household income (B19013). Polk's median household earns less than the national median, which is what turns a cheaper housing market into a more strained one.

A household earning 18.3% less than the national median, buying a home only 19.9% below the national median value, ends up committing more of its income to housing. That arithmetic is the whole story.

The number to be careful with

Renter cost burden: high, but close to the national rateShare of renter households paying 30% or more of income on gross rent. Polk is elevated, but only modestly above the national figure — this is NOT what distinguishes Polk.Renter cost burden: high, but close to the national ratePolk CountyPolk County: 49.8%49.8%FloridaFlorida: 56.3%56.3%United StatesUnited States: 47.6%47.6%Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 5-year estimates (api.census.gov)
Share of renter households paying 30% or more of income on gross rent. Polk is elevated, but only modestly above the national figure — this is NOT what distinguishes Polk.

Polk's renter cost burden (49.8%) is the most dramatic-sounding figure in this dataset, and it is real: 42,611 of 85,480 renter households pay 30% or more of income on rent. But the national rate is 47.6%. Polk is roughly 2 points worse, which is a national story with a Polk dateline rather than a Polk story. The owner gap above is the one that actually separates this county.

Full comparison table

MeasurePolkFLU.S.
Median income$65,978$74,568$80,734
Median home value$266,500$359,000$332,700
Median gross rent$1,363$1,669$1,413
Homeownership70.5%67.6%65.2%
Owner cost burden34.3%35.0%28.0%
Renter cost burden49.8%56.3%47.6%
Price-to-income4.04x4.81x4.12x

Variables, in row order: B19013, B25077, B25064, B25003, B25091, B25070, and B25077÷B19013. Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 5-year estimates (api.census.gov). Geography: Polk County, Florida (state FIPS 12, county FIPS 105), identical to the Lakeland–Winter Haven, FL Metro Area (CBSA 29460). Retrieved 2026-08-30.

Method, and what this page deliberately excludes

Every raw estimate above is a single Census ACS 2024 5-year variable, named in the table so it can be re-pulled independently from api.census.gov. Four figures are derived, and the arithmetic is stated rather than asserted:

  • Price-to-income = B25077_001E ÷ B19013_001E
  • Homeownership rate = B25003_002E ÷ B25003_001E
  • Owner cost-burdened = (B25091_008E+_009E+_010E+_011E) ÷ B25091_002E
  • Renter cost-burdened = (B25070_007E+_008E+_009E+_010E) ÷ B25070_001E

“Cost-burdened” is the standard HUD threshold: housing costs at or above 30% of household income.

This page contains no median home price, no modelled mortgage payment, and no qualifying-income figure. B25077 is the Census median home value — a survey estimate of what owners report their homes are worth, not a record of what homes sold for. A median sale price for this metro would have to come from the National Association of Realtors series, which is proprietary and which we do not redistribute. The two measures are not interchangeable, and we would rather publish the one we can source than the one that sounds more precise.

Reuse

The underlying data is U.S. Census Bureau public-domain output. This analysis, the derived figures and the charts are published under CC BY 4.0 — use them, including commercially, with attribution. If you do, a source credit linking to this page is all we ask. Newsrooms are welcome to request the same cut for any other county; the generator is scripts/census-county-card.cjs and it takes a state and county FIPS pair.

Dreamy Leads Research
Dreamy Leads Research

This study is maintained by the Dreamy Leads Research desk. It is built directly from U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 2024 5-year estimates for Polk County, Florida, with Florida and national benchmarks pulled in the same request so the three columns are always the same vintage.