Executive Summary
Buying the median U.S. home in 2026 requires approximately $115,000–$135,000 in annual gross income at a 7.1% 30-year fixed rate with 10% down — more than double the $52,000 needed at the 3.0% rates available in 2020–2021. The affordability gap is most extreme in coastal metros: San Jose requires over $500,000/year in income to afford the median home, Miami over $225,000, and New York over $200,000. At the other end, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Memphis remain accessible to buyers earning $65,000–$85,000/year.
This tracker uses NAR Q1 2026 median home prices, Freddie Mac PMMS rate of 7.1% (week of 2026-05-01), ACS 2024–2025 area median incomes, and state-average property tax and insurance rates to compute the true monthly PITI cost and minimum qualifying income for each metro. Updated quarterly.
Mortgage Affordability Calculator
Monthly PITI breakdown · Minimum income required · 28/36/43% DTI check
Income qualification thresholds
Affordability by Metro — 30 Markets (2026)
Ranked by minimum qualifying income needed. Accessible = median income covers 80%+ of qualifying income. Stretched = 50–79%. Unaffordable = 30–49%. Severely unaffordable = under 30%.
| Metro | Median Price | Monthly PITI | Min. Income Needed | Area Median Income | Income Coverage | Affordability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh, PA | $225,000 | $1,869 | $80,100/yr | $62,000 | 77% | Stretched |
| Cleveland, OH | $225,000 | $1,997 | $85,600/yr | $52,000 | 61% | Unaffordable |
| Memphis, TN | $240,000 | $1,935 | $82,900/yr | $55,000 | 66% | Unaffordable |
| Detroit, MI | $250,000 | $2,127 | $91,200/yr | $58,000 | 64% | Unaffordable |
| Kansas City, MO | $290,000 | $2,348 | $100,600/yr | $67,000 | 67% | Unaffordable |
| Indianapolis, IN | $295,000 | $2,282 | $97,800/yr | $65,000 | 66% | Unaffordable |
| Columbus, OH | $310,000 | $2,635 | $112,900/yr | $68,000 | 60% | Unaffordable |
| Houston, TX | $330,000 | $3,012 | $129,100/yr | $62,000 | 48% | Severely unaffordable |
| San Antonio, TX | $300,000 | $2,740 | $117,400/yr | $58,000 | 49% | Severely unaffordable |
| Chicago, IL | $350,000 | $3,283 | $140,700/yr | $75,000 | 53% | Unaffordable |
| Philadelphia, PA | $360,000 | $3,158 | $135,300/yr | $68,000 | 50% | Unaffordable |
| Charlotte, NC | $370,000 | $2,889 | $123,800/yr | $74,000 | 60% | Unaffordable |
| Atlanta, GA | $380,000 | $2,984 | $127,900/yr | $78,000 | 61% | Unaffordable |
| Dallas, TX | $380,000 | $3,404 | $145,900/yr | $77,000 | 53% | Unaffordable |
| Minneapolis, MN | $380,000 | $3,026 | $129,700/yr | $88,000 | 68% | Unaffordable |
| Tampa, FL | $390,000 | $3,400 | $145,700/yr | $67,000 | 46% | Severely unaffordable |
| Orlando, FL | $385,000 | $3,378 | $144,800/yr | $65,000 | 45% | Severely unaffordable |
| Phoenix, AZ | $420,000 | $3,132 | $134,200/yr | $75,000 | 56% | Unaffordable |
| Nashville, TN | $440,000 | $3,482 | $149,200/yr | $73,000 | 49% | Severely unaffordable |
| Raleigh, NC | $435,000 | $3,398 | $145,600/yr | $80,000 | 55% | Unaffordable |
| Austin, TX | $460,000 | $4,116 | $176,400/yr | $80,000 | 45% | Severely unaffordable |
| Denver, CO | $560,000 | $3,818 | $163,600/yr | $90,000 | 55% | Unaffordable |
| Washington DC | $610,000 | $4,641 | $198,900/yr | $120,000 | 60% | Unaffordable |
| New York, NY | $630,000 | $5,388 | $230,900/yr | $85,000 | 37% | Severely unaffordable |
| Boston, MA | $680,000 | $5,328 | $228,300/yr | $105,000 | 46% | Severely unaffordable |
| Seattle, WA | $680,000 | $4,961 | $212,600/yr | $115,000 | 54% | Unaffordable |
| San Diego, CA | $960,000 | $7,043 | $301,800/yr | $95,000 | 31% | Severely unaffordable |
| Los Angeles, CA | $880,000 | $6,410 | $274,700/yr | $80,000 | 29% | Severely unaffordable |
| Miami, FL | $620,000 | $5,513 | $236,300/yr | $67,000 | 28% | Severely unaffordable |
| San Jose, CA | $1,750,000 | $12,717 | $545,000/yr | $145,000 | 27% | Severely unaffordable |
The Affordability Gap in Context
Rates at 7.1% in 2026 versus 3.0% in 2021 effectively added $55–$65/month of payment per $100,000 borrowed. On the national median $420,000 home with 10% down, monthly P&I went from approximately $1,400 (2021) to $2,540 (2026) — an $1,140/month increase. Combined with home prices that rose roughly 35–40% over the same period in many markets, the monthly payment more than doubled in five years.
Affordability is not uniformly stressed. Midwest and Rust Belt markets like Pittsburgh, Columbus, Kansas City, and Indianapolis have seen moderate price appreciation and remain accessible to buyers with household incomes of $65,000–$100,000. Sun Belt metros that experienced peak migration demand (Austin, Tampa, Nashville, Phoenix) are now severely stressed — the buyers who drove those markets are increasingly priced out.
Rate Sensitivity: What Each 0.5% Change Means
On a $400,000 purchase with 10% down ($360,000 loan):
- At 6.0%: P&I = $2,158/mo → minimum income $105,600/yr (28% DTI)
- At 6.5%: P&I = $2,275/mo → minimum income $110,400/yr
- At 7.0%: P&I = $2,395/mo → minimum income $115,500/yr
- At 7.1%: P&I = $2,421/mo → minimum income $116,600/yr
- At 7.5%: P&I = $2,517/mo → minimum income $121,200/yr
- At 8.0%: P&I = $2,642/mo → minimum income $127,000/yr
Each 1% decrease in mortgage rates adds approximately 10–12% to purchasing power at the same monthly payment — or equivalently, reduces the minimum qualifying income by $10,000–$12,000 per $400,000 home. This is why rate movement remains the single largest driver of affordability in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much income do I need to buy a $400,000 house?
At 7.1% rate with 10% down on a $400,000 home, your monthly PITI runs approximately $3,200–$3,500 depending on your state's property tax and insurance rates. Using the 28% front-end DTI rule, you need roughly $137,000–$150,000 in annual gross income to qualify. Use the calculator above to get the exact number for your state and down payment.
What is the 28/36 rule for mortgage affordability?
The 28/36 rule: housing costs (PITI) should not exceed 28% of gross monthly income (front-end DTI), and total debt payments (housing + all other loans) should not exceed 36% of gross monthly income (back-end DTI). Most conventional lenders extend the back-end to 43–45%. FHA allows up to 57% back-end with compensating factors. If you have significant student loans or car payments, the back-end limit — not the front-end — often governs your maximum mortgage.
Is now a good time to buy a house in 2026?
Affordability remains historically stressed nationally — the minimum income needed to buy the median home is roughly double what it was in 2020–2021. However, this varies enormously by metro. Midwest markets (Pittsburgh, Columbus, Indianapolis, Kansas City) remain reasonably accessible to median-income buyers. Coastal and Sun Belt metros (San Jose, Miami, New York, Austin, Tampa) require 2–8× the local median income to afford a typical home. The answer depends entirely on where you're buying and whether you're comparing to historical norms or recent peaks.
How does a 1% rate change affect what I can afford?
Each 1% rate decrease adds approximately 10–12% to purchasing power at the same monthly payment. On a $500/month P&I budget: at 7.1%, you can borrow ~$73,000; at 6.1%, ~$82,000; at 5.1%, ~$93,000. Equivalently, each 1% rate decrease reduces the minimum qualifying income by roughly $10,000–$12,000 per $400,000 in home price. Rate changes have an outsized effect on affordability compared to home price changes because they affect every dollar borrowed.
What is PITI and why does it matter?
PITI = Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance. Lenders calculate affordability on the full PITI, not just P&I. For example, a $400,000 Phoenix home with 10% down: P&I = $2,421/mo, property tax ~$245/mo (AZ 0.7%), insurance ~$140/mo, PMI ~$195/mo = PITI of $3,001/mo. If you only calculate P&I, you'll underestimate the monthly cost by $500–$1,000 depending on state. Florida's high insurance rates and Texas's high property taxes make PITI substantially higher than P&I in those states.
Sources