Executive Summary
Buying the median U.S. home ($432,900, NAR Q3 2026) requires at least $123,300 in annual gross income at a 7.28% 30-year fixed rate with 10% down, before any property tax or insurance. The affordability gap is most extreme in coastal metros: San Jose requires over $600,000/year in income to afford the median home, Miami over $250,000, and New York over $285,000. At the other end, Pittsburgh, Memphis and Cleveland need $92,200–$99,400/year, and Pittsburgh is the only metro here where the local median household income covers at least 80% of the qualifying income.
This tracker uses National Association of Realtors Q3 2026 metro median home prices (preliminary; see the note under Table 1), the Freddie Mac PMMS rate of 7.28% (week of 2026-10-01), Census ACS 2024 1-year metro median household incomes, and per-metro property-tax and insurance estimates (published in Table 2) to compute the true monthly PITI cost and minimum qualifying income for each metro.
Mortgage Affordability Calculator
Monthly PITI breakdown · Minimum income required · 28/36/43% DTI check
Income qualification thresholds
Affordability by Metro — 30 Markets (2026)
Ranked by minimum qualifying income needed. Accessible = median income covers 80%+ of qualifying income. Stretched = 70–79%. Unaffordable = 50–69%. Severely unaffordable = under 50%.
| Metro | Median Price† | Monthly PITI | Min. Income Needed | Median Household Income (ACS 2024 1-yr, metro) | Income Coverage | Affordability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh, PA | $263,800 | $2,151 | $92,200/yr | $77,214 | 84% | Accessible |
| Memphis, TN | $290,300 | $2,296 | $98,400/yr | $68,124 | 69% | Unaffordable |
| Cleveland, OH | $269,800 | $2,319 | $99,400/yr | $72,532 | 73% | Stretched |
| Detroit, MI | $315,300 | $2,589 | $111,000/yr | $76,403 | 69% | Unaffordable |
| Indianapolis, IN | $345,400 | $2,648 | $113,500/yr | $80,239 | 71% | Stretched |
| San Antonio, TX | $307,600 | $2,824 | $121,000/yr | $78,112 | 65% | Unaffordable |
| Kansas City, MO | $371,000 | $2,919 | $125,100/yr | $83,785 | 67% | Unaffordable |
| Columbus, OH | $359,000 | $2,995 | $128,400/yr | $82,938 | 65% | Unaffordable |
| Atlanta, GA | $376,800 | $3,005 | $128,800/yr | $92,344 | 72% | Stretched |
| Houston, TX | $340,300 | $3,117 | $133,600/yr | $81,417 | 61% | Unaffordable |
| Minneapolis, MN | $416,800 | $3,313 | $142,000/yr | $97,928 | 69% | Unaffordable |
| Charlotte, NC | $433,200 | $3,351 | $143,600/yr | $85,938 | 60% | Unaffordable |
| Nashville, TN | $419,700 | $3,395 | $145,500/yr | $88,800 | 61% | Unaffordable |
| Dallas, TX | $374,400 | $3,410 | $146,100/yr | $92,733 | 63% | Unaffordable |
| Phoenix, AZ | $471,000 | $3,517 | $150,700/yr | $90,133 | 60% | Unaffordable |
| Tampa, FL | $410,000 | $3,576 | $153,300/yr | $78,275 | 51% | Unaffordable |
| Raleigh, NC | $457,300 | $3,594 | $154,000/yr | $102,144 | 66% | Unaffordable |
| Philadelphia, PA | $430,500 | $3,665 | $157,100/yr | $90,850 | 58% | Unaffordable |
| Orlando, FL | $446,000 | $3,824 | $163,900/yr | $81,044 | 49% | Severely unaffordable |
| Chicago, IL | $437,100 | $3,900 | $167,100/yr | $90,770 | 54% | Unaffordable |
| Austin, TX | $467,100 | $4,213 | $180,600/yr | $99,897 | 55% | Unaffordable |
| Denver, CO | $651,900 | $4,490 | $192,400/yr | $108,046 | 56% | Unaffordable |
| Washington DC | $656,200 | $5,016 | $215,000/yr | $126,244 | 59% | Unaffordable |
| Seattle, WA | $772,800 | $5,653 | $242,300/yr | $112,388 | 46% | Severely unaffordable |
| Miami, FL | $660,000 | $5,847 | $250,600/yr | $80,625 | 32% | Severely unaffordable |
| Boston, MA | $820,000 | $6,333 | $271,400/yr | $117,825 | 43% | Severely unaffordable |
| New York, NY | $815,200 | $6,688 | $286,600/yr | $99,852 | 35% | Severely unaffordable |
| Los Angeles, CA | $958,500 | $7,027 | $301,200/yr | $96,405 | 32% | Severely unaffordable |
| San Diego, CA | $1,075,000 | $7,912 | $339,100/yr | $109,132 | 32% | Severely unaffordable |
| San Jose, CA | $1,920,000 | $14,039 | $601,700/yr | $164,801 | 27% | Severely unaffordable |
† Re-priced October 31, 2026. Every price in this column is NAR's Q3 2026 median sales price of existing single-family homes (table dated October 29, 2026; NAR marks the quarter preliminary, and the series is not seasonally adjusted). Earlier editions labelled this column NAR Q1 2026, but on 2026-10-20 none of the 30 prices matched that table and their origin could not be traced. The re-price moved every payment, income and coverage cell (for example Kansas City $290,000 → $371,000; New York $630,000 → $815,200) and changed the affordability tier of 10 of 30 metros. Qualifying income is this tracker's model output, not a NAR figure: it includes the taxes-and-insurance estimates in Table 2, which have no named source.
Correction (October 20, 2026): the income column was labelled as a 2024–2025 Census ACS figure (no 2025 ACS release exists yet) and matched no Census table. It now shows each metro's ACS 2024 1-year median household income (table B19013; e.g. San Jose $145,000 → $164,801; Houston $62,000 → $81,417; Cleveland $52,000 → $72,532), and the Income Coverage and Affordability columns are recomputed from it (16 of 30 metros changed tier). The per-metro PITI inputs are now published in Table 2.
Table 2. PITI inputs by metro
How each row's monthly PITI in Table 1 is built. Principal and interest and PMI follow from the stated model (90% loan, 30-year fixed at 7.28%, PMI 0.65% a year of the loan). The taxes-and-insurance amount is this tracker's own per-metro estimate, carried from its May 2026 edition: it is not taken from a named source edition and differs from the calculator's state averages, so it is published here as an estimate. The October 31, 2026 re-price changed the price column only: these dollar amounts were held fixed, so the percent-of-price column moved with the new prices.
| Metro | Principal & interest | PMI | Taxes + insurance (estimate) | Taxes + insurance, % of price a year | Monthly PITI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh, PA | $1,624 | $129 | $398 | 1.81% | $2,151 |
| Memphis, TN | $1,788 | $142 | $366 | 1.51% | $2,296 |
| Cleveland, OH | $1,661 | $132 | $526 | 2.34% | $2,319 |
| Detroit, MI | $1,942 | $154 | $493 | 1.88% | $2,589 |
| Indianapolis, IN | $2,127 | $168 | $353 | 1.23% | $2,648 |
| San Antonio, TX | $1,894 | $150 | $780 | 3.04% | $2,824 |
| Kansas City, MO | $2,285 | $181 | $453 | 1.47% | $2,919 |
| Columbus, OH | $2,211 | $175 | $609 | 2.04% | $2,995 |
| Atlanta, GA | $2,320 | $184 | $501 | 1.60% | $3,005 |
| Houston, TX | $2,096 | $166 | $855 | 3.01% | $3,117 |
| Minneapolis, MN | $2,567 | $203 | $543 | 1.56% | $3,313 |
| Charlotte, NC | $2,668 | $211 | $472 | 1.31% | $3,351 |
| Nashville, TN | $2,584 | $205 | $606 | 1.73% | $3,395 |
| Dallas, TX | $2,306 | $183 | $921 | 2.95% | $3,410 |
| Phoenix, AZ | $2,900 | $230 | $387 | 0.99% | $3,517 |
| Tampa, FL | $2,525 | $200 | $851 | 2.49% | $3,576 |
| Raleigh, NC | $2,816 | $223 | $555 | 1.46% | $3,594 |
| Philadelphia, PA | $2,651 | $210 | $804 | 2.24% | $3,665 |
| Orlando, FL | $2,746 | $217 | $861 | 2.32% | $3,824 |
| Chicago, IL | $2,692 | $213 | $995 | 2.73% | $3,900 |
| Austin, TX | $2,876 | $228 | $1,109 | 2.85% | $4,213 |
| Denver, CO | $4,014 | $318 | $158 | 0.29% | $4,490 |
| Washington DC | $4,041 | $320 | $655 | 1.20% | $5,016 |
| Seattle, WA | $4,759 | $377 | $517 | 0.80% | $5,653 |
| Miami, FL | $4,064 | $322 | $1,461 | 2.66% | $5,847 |
| Boston, MA | $5,049 | $400 | $884 | 1.29% | $6,333 |
| New York, NY | $5,020 | $397 | $1,271 | 1.87% | $6,688 |
| Los Angeles, CA | $5,902 | $467 | $658 | 0.82% | $7,027 |
| San Diego, CA | $6,620 | $524 | $768 | 0.86% | $7,912 |
| San Jose, CA | $11,823 | $936 | $1,280 | 0.80% | $14,039 |
The Affordability Gap in Context
Rates at 7.28% in 2026 versus 3.0% in 2021 add about $263/month of principal and interest per $100,000 borrowed. On the national median $432,900 home (NAR Q3 2026) with 10% down, monthly P&I is $2,670 at 7.28%, against about $1,640 at a 3.0% rate — a difference of about $1,030 a month.
Affordability is not uniformly stressed. Midwest and Rust Belt markets like Pittsburgh, Columbus, Kansas City, and Indianapolis have seen moderate price appreciation and need qualifying incomes of $92,000–$129,000 at this rate. Sun Belt metros that experienced peak migration demand (Austin, Tampa, Nashville, Phoenix) are stressed — local median household income covers only 51–61% of the qualifying income, and the buyers who drove those markets are increasingly priced out.
Rate Sensitivity: What Each 0.5% Change Means
On a $400,000 purchase with 10% down ($360,000 loan):
- At 6.0%: P&I = $2,158/mo → minimum income $105,600/yr (28% DTI)
- At 6.5%: P&I = $2,275/mo → minimum income $110,400/yr
- At 7.0%: P&I = $2,395/mo → minimum income $115,500/yr
- At 7.28%: P&I = $2,463/mo → minimum income $118,500/yr
- At 7.5%: P&I = $2,517/mo → minimum income $121,200/yr
- At 8.0%: P&I = $2,642/mo → minimum income $127,000/yr
Each 1% decrease in mortgage rates adds approximately 10–12% to purchasing power at the same monthly payment — or equivalently, reduces the minimum qualifying income by $10,000–$12,000 per $400,000 home. This is why rate movement remains the single largest driver of affordability in 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does a 1% rate change affect mortgage affordability?
Each 1% rate increase from today's level adds about $69/month per $100,000 borrowed on a 30-year loan. On a $350,000 loan, moving from 6.28% to 7.28% adds ~$233/month in P&I and requires ~$10,000 more in annual gross income to meet the 28% front-end ratio. This is why affordability deteriorated sharply between 2022 and 2024 as rates rose from ~3% to 7%+.
What is included in PITI?
PITI stands for Principal, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance. Lenders calculate your monthly PITI payment as: (1) Principal and Interest — the base mortgage payment, (2) Property taxes — typically 1/12th of your annual property tax bill, (3) Homeowners insurance — typically 1/12th of your annual premium, and (4) PMI/MIP — if your down payment is below 20% on a conventional loan, or any FHA loan. All four components count toward the 28% front-end DTI limit.
How much income do I need to buy a $400,000 house?
At a 7.28% rate with 10% down on a $400,000 home, your monthly PITI runs approximately $3,250–$3,550 depending on your state's property tax and insurance rates. Using the 28% front-end DTI rule, you need roughly $139,000–$152,000 in annual gross income to qualify. Use the calculator above to get the exact number for your state and down payment.
What is the 28/36 rule for mortgage affordability?
The 28/36 rule: housing costs (PITI) should not exceed 28% of gross monthly income (front-end DTI), and total debt payments (housing + all other loans) should not exceed 36% of gross monthly income (back-end DTI). Most conventional lenders extend the back-end to 43–45%. FHA allows up to 57% back-end with compensating factors. If you have significant student loans or car payments, the back-end limit — not the front-end — often governs your maximum mortgage.
Is now a good time to buy a house in 2026?
Affordability remains historically stressed nationally — the minimum income needed to buy the median home is roughly double what it was in 2020–2021. However, this varies enormously by metro. Among Midwest markets, the local median household income covers 84% of the qualifying income in Pittsburgh, 71% in Indianapolis, 67% in Kansas City and 65% in Columbus. Coastal and Sun Belt metros (San Jose, Miami, New York, Austin, Tampa) require about 1.8–3.7× the local median household income to afford a typical home. The answer depends entirely on where you're buying and whether you're comparing to historical norms or recent peaks.
How does a 1% rate change affect what I can afford?
Each 1% rate decrease adds approximately 10–12% to purchasing power at the same monthly payment. On a $500/month P&I budget: at 7.28%, you can borrow ~$73,000; at 6.28%, ~$81,000; at 5.28%, ~$90,000. Equivalently, each 1% rate decrease reduces the minimum qualifying income by roughly $10,000–$12,000 per $400,000 in home price. Rate changes have an outsized effect on affordability compared to home price changes because they affect every dollar borrowed.
What is PITI and why does it matter?
PITI = Principal + Interest + Taxes + Insurance. Lenders calculate affordability on the full PITI, not just P&I. For example, a $400,000 Phoenix home with 10% down: P&I = $2,463/mo at 7.28%, property tax ~$245/mo (AZ 0.7%), insurance ~$140/mo, PMI ~$195/mo = PITI of $3,043/mo. If you only calculate P&I, you'll underestimate the monthly cost by $500–$1,000 depending on state. Florida's high insurance rates and Texas's high property taxes make PITI substantially higher than P&I in those states.
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